Open Gaming Forensic LabCase file: Is the 50/50 Rigged? What Losing Streaks Look Like Across 1,000,000 Players
You lost the 50/50 three times in a row. It feels rigged. We simulated one million players going after ten limited characters each, in Zenless Zone Zero, Honkai: Star Rail and Wuthering Waves, using the officially published rules, to see what a fair coin actually feels like, and what it would take to prove that one isn't fair.
Finding. On a fair 50/50, half of all players who chase ten characters suffer a losing streak of three or more, and one in ten loses five in a row. Your own history almost never contains enough flips to show rigging: with 20 flips, a fair coin and a rigged 40% coin look almost identical. It takes hundreds.
Method
1,000,000 simulated players per game each go after 10 featured 5★ units in a row. Pity and guarantee carry over between banners. Each top-rarity drop follows the game's rate curve (see the rules file); a 50/50 is flipped only when the player is not already guaranteed. Random seed 20261020.
Results
| Game | Featured share | Avg. 50/50s lost | 3+ loss streak | 4+ | 5+ | Median cost of 10 | 90% cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenless Zone Zero | 50.00% | 5.0 | 50.7% | 24.5% | 11.0% | $2,306 | $2,740 |
| Honkai: Star Rail | 56.25% | 4.38 | 38.5% | 15.9% | 6.1% | $2,210 | $2,639 |
| Wuthering Waves | 50.00% | 5.0 | 50.8% | 24.5% | 11.0% | $2,002 | $2,397 |
How unusual is your record?
Chance of winning this share of your 50/50s or fewer on a fair coin. Below about 5% is unusual; one player's history rarely gets there.
| Your record | 10 flips | 20 flips | 50 flips | 100 flips | 200 flips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| won 50% or fewer | 62.30% | 58.81% | 55.61% | 53.98% | 52.82% |
| won 45% or fewer | 37.70% | 41.19% | 23.99% | 18.41% | 8.95% |
| won 40% or fewer | 37.70% | 25.17% | 10.13% | 2.84% | 0.28% |
| won 35% or fewer | 17.19% | 13.16% | 1.64% | 0.18% | 0.00% |
| won 30% or fewer | 17.19% | 5.77% | 0.33% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| won 20% or fewer | 5.47% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Charts
Download the code and data
Limitations
- Genshin Impact is not simulated: Capturing Radiance's counter is not fully public. HoYoverse states it triggers after the featured character was the second 5★ on three consecutive occasions.
- Soft-pity curves are community-measured. Dollar figures are cash-only at the App Store base pack.
Found an error? Email [email protected].