Case file: What One Limited 5★ Really Costs: Genshin vs Star Rail vs ZZZ vs Wuthering Waves (1,000,000 Simulated Players)

Case file · published 2026-10-18

The banner says 0.6%. The game guarantees a 5-star by pull 90. So what does one limited character actually cost? We rebuilt the pull systems of Genshin Impact, Honkai: Star Rail, Zenless Zone Zero and Wuthering Waves from their officially published rates, checked the model against the developers' own consolidated numbers, and ran one million simulated players through each.

Finding. Starting from zero pity and paying cash at the best-value pack, the typical player spends about $195 for one featured 5-star in the HoYoverse games and about $180 in Wuthering Waves. One player in ten spends roughly double. The price isn't set by the 0.6% rate. It's set by soft pity and the 50/50.

Method

Each simulated player starts with zero pity and no guarantee and pulls until they get the featured 5★. A pull's chance of a 5★ follows the game's rate curve: the official base rate, a community-measured soft-pity climb, and the official hard pity. When a 5★ drops it is the featured unit with the game's featured share; otherwise the next 5★ is guaranteed. 1,000,000 players per game, random seed 20261018.

Inputs and where each number comes from

Game	Parameter	Value	Status	Source
Genshin Impact	Base 5★ rate	0.600%	official	source
Genshin Impact	Hard pity	90	official	same banner details
Genshin Impact	Soft pity starts	74	community	source
Genshin Impact	Soft pity step	6.000%	community	source
Genshin Impact	Featured share	55.000%	official	source
Genshin Impact	USD per pull	$2.47	derived	source
Honkai: Star Rail	Base 5★ rate	0.600%	official	source
Honkai: Star Rail	Hard pity	90	official	same banner details
Honkai: Star Rail	Soft pity starts	74	community	source
Honkai: Star Rail	Soft pity step	6.000%	community	source
Honkai: Star Rail	Featured share	56.250%	derived	banner details
Honkai: Star Rail	USD per pull	$2.47	derived	source
Zenless Zone Zero	Base 5★ rate	0.600%	official	source
Zenless Zone Zero	Hard pity	90	official	same banner details
Zenless Zone Zero	Soft pity starts	74	community	source
Zenless Zone Zero	Soft pity step	6.000%	community	source
Zenless Zone Zero	Featured share	50.000%	official	banner details
Zenless Zone Zero	USD per pull	$2.47	derived	source
Wuthering Waves	Base 5★ rate	0.800%	official	source
Wuthering Waves	Hard pity	80	official	source
Wuthering Waves	Soft pity schedule	[[66, 70, 0.04], [71, 75, 0.08], [76, 78, 0.1]]	community	source
Wuthering Waves	Featured share	50.000%	official	source
Wuthering Waves	USD per pull	$2.47	derived	source

Does the model match the official numbers?

Game	Model 5★ rate	Official	Model featured rate	Official
Genshin Impact	1.605%	1.600%	1.107%	1.103%
Honkai: Star Rail	1.605%	1.600%	1.117%	1.113%
Zenless Zone Zero	1.605%	1.600%	1.070%	1.067%
Wuthering Waves	1.848%	1.800%	1.232%	not published

Results: pulls for one featured 5★

Game	10%	Median	90%	99%	Mean	Median $	90% $
Genshin Impact	31	79	155	161	90.37	$195	$383
Honkai: Star Rail	31	79	155	161	89.53	$195	$383
Zenless Zone Zero	34	80	155	161	93.45	$198	$383
Wuthering Waves	26	73	140	147	81.12	$180	$346

Dollar figures use $99.99 for 6,480 premium currency (App Store base amount, no bonus) at 160 per pull. Real spending is usually lower because players earn free currency.

Charts

Download the code and data

Limitations

Soft-pity curves are community-measured, not published by the developers.
Genshin's Capturing Radiance is modelled as a flat 55% featured share (the official consolidated figure); its hidden counter is not public.
Wuthering Waves' soft-pity curve was estimated from beta testing.

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