How One Limited 5★ Can Cost $383 | 1M Simulations

Can one limited five-star really cost $383? From zero pity and buying every pull at the best-value cash pack, that is the modeled unlucky one-in-ten outcome for Genshin Impact, Honkai: Star Rail and Zenless Zone Zero. The model median is about $195. This episode explains how the published base rate, soft pity and featured 50/50 create that gap across four games.

Method: One million computer-model runs per game use published rates and guarantees plus clearly labeled community soft-pity estimates. OGFL did not test live accounts, play these games for this episode, inspect game servers or measure actual player spending. Matching a published aggregate rate is a consistency check, not proof of hidden per-pull behavior.

Chapters:
00:00 The question
01:09 How the system works
02:39 Rebuilding the machine
03:33 One million model runs
04:32 The four games compared
06:20 What it means for you

Sources:
- Genshin Impact banner details (HoYoverse): https://operation-webstatic.hoyoverse.com/gacha_info/hk4e/os_asia/54b562f108846936908bec29eea92eb9f601847b/en-us.json
- Genshin Impact: Capturing Radiance rates (HoYoverse): https://genshin.hoyoverse.com/en/news/detail/125274
- Honkai: Star Rail banner details (HoYoverse): https://operation-webstatic.hoyoverse.com/gacha_info/hkrpg/prod_official_usa/5cc0167d3d91324655049adad752618bc6ca969c/en-us.json
- Zenless Zone Zero banner details (HoYoverse): https://operation-webstatic.hoyoverse.com/gacha_info/nap/prod_gf_us/57afc3f1b18d6e149970e6240e627b02aeb7c355/en-us.json
- Wuthering Waves convene rates (Kuro Games): https://wutheringwaves.kurogames.com/en/main/news/detail/758
- Community soft-pity models (GGanalysis, OneBST): https://github.com/OneBST/GGanalysis
- Simulation code and data for this episode: https://opengamingforensics.org/lab/limited-5star-cost/

Independent analysis for educational purposes; not affiliated with or endorsed by HoYoverse or Kuro Games. Game names are used for identification only. All artwork in this video is original, AI-generated scenery; music is original (generated with Lyria). Dollar figures are cash-only estimates, not financial advice.